OK, so I lied. Due to overwhelming requests, we’re gonna do one more, Mark Warner. This is the thirteenth entry in our series profiling Barack Obama’s most likely candidates for the vice presidential nomination. Now we’ve got an even baker’s dozen. You can view the rest of our profiles here. If you’ve got a choice that wasn’t profiled, send it in; if it looks good, we’ll post it. Since we’ve added this final profile, we’re going to postpone our final analysis until the weekend. Don’t forget to come join us next week as we make our way through the contenders for cabinet positions. And vote in our poll. It runs through June 4th.
Mark Warner is the former governor of Virginia. Virginia’s bizarre term limits (a candidate may not serve consecutive terms) forced him from office in 2006 when he was replaced by Democrat Tim Kaine. He remains overwhelmingly popular in his home state, and is currently on track to pick up the senate seat being vacated by Republican John Warner. He has the approval of 67% of Virginian voters according to a Washington Post poll from last October. During his tenure as governor, Mark Warner consistently improved his numbers. He came into office with a 62 percent approval rating (30 percent disapproval); by the time he left office, he polled at 75 percent approval with only 19 percent disapproval. As for his current numbers… well, I usually like to go with SUSA numbers, but Rasmussen is the only firm doing consistent polling on Virginia’s Senate race. In their polls, Warner has maintained a 15-20 point lead in the race for nearly a year. In short: Virginia is Warner country (um, Mark, not John).
According to stalwart political "journalist" Robert Novak, Warner has confided to friends that he’s being considered for the VP slot, but has made no mention of whether he’ll accept it. Given that two years ago, Warner was on the short list of candidates being eyed for a 2008 presidential run, which he ruled out in the fall of 2006 when he announced his Senate run, one has to believe that he has some aspiration for the highest office in the country. Actually, that could be probably be determined simply from the fact that he’s a politician. No one gets into this business because they don’t think they’d make a great president. The question is, which role does Warner believe is better suited to launch a presidential campaign? He’ll be forced to abdicate his Senate seat with four years left in his second term if he chooses to run following a (presumed) Obama administration. He’ll be forced to abdicate it with two years left in his first term in the unlikely event that Obama loses in the fall.
But let’s halt the baseless speculation and get down into the issues. There’s a reason Mark Warner is held in high esteem by the country’s most Democrat. He’s a consummate politician with a sterling record on many of the top progressive issues. He upholds a woman’s right to choose, and opposed the creation of a 24-hour waiting period for women seeking abortion (which I suppose was introduced because we all know how impulsively women come to the decision to terminate a pregnancy). As governor, he extended health care to an additional 138,000 Virginia children. He supports the death penalty, but has admitted to weaknesses in the system. He’s a firm believer in the use of DNA evidence for capital crimes, and worked to extend the 21 day limit for the introduction of new evidence following a trial to insure the integrity of the system. He passed a tax reform measure which cut income taxes for middle class voters. In a display of fiscal responsibility, he offset those cuts by raising tax on the upper income brackets, raising the tax on cigarettes, and raising the state sales tax by one percent (while simultaneously lowering the tax on food items by 1.5 percent). On Iraq, Warner voiced no original opinion that I can find, and he now currently straddles the fence, calling for "a responsible plan – without artificial timelines – to begin to bring our brave military men and women home." He’s also stated that troop withdrawal should absolutely be on the table. So take from that what you will.
Just like Obama, Mark Warner has focused on broadening the electoral map saying, "We can’t win in just 16 blue states." It is likely that Obama would find an excellent match in the former governor. Mark Warner has thus far run his Senate campaign on the themes of change and the creation of a post-partisan politics. He’s a strong public speaker, young enough (he’s 53) that he’d be an excellent candidate for president following an Obama administration, and with him on the ticket, I don’t see any way the Democrats lose Virginia in 2008. However, there is no candidate to take his place in his Senate run, and this is effectively Warner’s only weak point. Without Warner in that slot, the Democrats will have a much, much harder time securing that Senate seat. Frankly, we’ll probably lose that race. So, the real question with Mark Warner is: is he more valuable as a vice-president or as a senator?
Finally, it’s occurred to me in the course of writing these profiles that we can’t learn everything about a candidate from just reading about them, so let’s take a look at Warner on the stump (Ed note: I’m also going to return to our previous profiles and add stump speeches to candidates for whom I can locate them):
May 30, 2008 at 12:48 pm |
This would be a terrible pick as it would cost the Dems the Senate seat at a time where they absolutely must expand their control in the Senate. I would never forgive Obama for tapping Warner to be VP.
While Warner would certainly put VA in the blue, I’m positive that this could be done through several other candidates that would not strip a Senate seat away.
May 30, 2008 at 9:34 pm |
Yeah, losing that Senate seat is the one thing about his candidacy that I hate. That said, get prepared to hate Obama, because I think this guy is probably among the top three candidates Obama’s considering. Obama’s made it clear that he’s not looking to buck up his foreign policy credetials (he explicitly said this recently), so I don’t think it’ll be Webb, Clark, Zinni, or anyone else whose main claim to the spot is military experience. Which I think both you and I would agree is good.
In the same breath he mentioned he won’t seek anyone to bolster his national security credentials, he did say he wanted someone who could bring experience and knowledge he doesn’t have — so I’m thinking he’s looking toward a governor. Richardson’s too gaffe prone, Rendell is basically worthless and doesn’t fit with Obama’s message, Strickland is too old and again doesn’t marry well with Obama’s message. I’m thinking Schweitzer, Sebelius, and Warner probably comprise the core of Obama’s options. Napolitano would be on there as well, but at the age of 50+ and still unmarried, the rumor mill on her would be outrageous. Warner guarantees Virginia, which I’m thinking probably puts him over the top. Game, set, match.
If Warner wants the position, I think he’ll probably be the guy. The calculus behind this is that while we do need to expand our Senate lead, we’re pretty well guaranteed to pick up 5 seats at a minimum even without Warner in the race. Maybe even a couple more than that. It would be heartbreaking to reach 59 Senate seats while losing Virginia, though. Like I said, I think Obama’s going to pick someone whose message matches his own. Edwards and Warner top that list. And while Edwards does poll really well on an Obama ticket, it’s just hard to imagine the same guy riding the bottom of the ticket in two consecutive elections.
May 30, 2008 at 9:46 pm |
Also, in terms of Warner and the Senate. He’s not going to be a lifelong senator. Even if we get him in there, he’ll be out before the end of his second term. I think this guy wants to be president, and he’s going to run for it the next time he can. His wife has already endorsed Obama.
If he gives up the VP slot, he knows he’ll face an uphill battle in 2016 for the nomination. I can’t imagine he thinks McCain is going to win this election, and that he’ll be able to run in 2012. It’s possible, but it would fly in the face of all current knowledge about the dynamics of this election.
June 1, 2008 at 8:52 pm |
When Barack picks Mark Warner for his running mate, Kaine (who has to step down in 2010 anyway) can run now for Senate, and they all (Jim Webb too) can successfully support a Dem of their choice for governor…. Lots of strong coattails here, including Barack’s.
Warner will offer Barack a winning teammate–-someone he likes working with, a thoughtful, persuasive, energetic, and proven successful campaigner, a very good debater and speaker, a good balance in lots of ways to the Obama ticket (so they’ll win,) a good possibilitity for future President when Barack moves over to the Supreme Court (or whatever) in eight years, and most important, Warner is someone who really knows how to get things done and how to run a government.
It ought to be evident by now to informed voters that Barack has an in-depth interest and expertise in foreign policy, if not extensive experience, and I’m sure that Warner has been boning up in this area as well, for his Senate (or Veep) race, during the last year anyway….
Barack will make mincemeat of McCain in foreign policy debates, and I’ll bet Warner can impress folks on that subject in a debate too. Probably he’s made some foreign trips and met some key people in the last year or so, too? I mean, what has he been doing for the last year besides studying up…? I don’t think many people really think Barack is unprepared to handle the presidency, the 3 am calls, etc. Two Harvard lawyers with brilliant publicly-accountable records of service ought to count for something…. Warner knows his way around Congress too….
I think the public will love a ticket graced with 5 beautiful young daughters and two wonderful wives, headed up by these two attractive rock stars…. This is 2008, after all…. Their wives would be great friends–-both are remarkable women and good campaigners. Warner would bring in Virginia and Indiana (his birthplace) and would attract all Republicans, Independents and centrists/rural folk too, just because that’s the way he is. Charismatic, authentic, fun, smart, capable, trustworthy, kind, good, fair, intriguing, and a good politician too.
I can’t imagine WOMEN (Hillary-voters) not being drawn to these two remarkable men for every good reason…. I wish Warner were a Hispanic Catholic woman, but you can’t have everything. I think Hispanics will vote for an Obama/Warner ticket over McCain and ???. Both Obama and Warner are strong Christians.
I won’t go into all the ways Warner’s expertise offers depth to the Obama ticket, but Warner is especially strong in managing government and money/budgets/taxes, strong in his business abilities and connections (he was a founder of Nextel), very good at improving education, a strong record in transportation work, the environment, energy, health care, opposition to the war, a competitive economy, infrastructure, health care, technology…. All in all, a great record of interests and accomplishments. So great in fact, maybe Barack won’t even consider anyone else at all….
Warner seems to have great integrity, great judgment and superb political instincts. And he’s not one to put his foot in his mouth….
Warner’s politics can’t be tooooo far from Barack’s because Warner cut his teeth on politics as a young man working for Chris Dodd. I suspect Barack and Warner have a great number of common goals for change…..
Warner’s wife might help bring in some mlitary voters (she’s a brat) and may help with Texas too, where she went to grad school (in Austin.) She’s bright and attractive and capable (graduate degree in public health, a great field.)
When voters and the media get to know Warner–-who has earned the warm affection and great respect of 80% of the Virginians in both parties (that is, all who know him)-–voters will all be thrilled with the ticket. Warner is so funny, just so appealing, just like Barack (except different, of course.)
Does anyone remember how much fun it was when young(ish) Bill and Al hit the campaign trial? Just their energy was an amazing contrast…. If Barack believes in this moderate centrist, then I do too…. Having Warner on the ticket will convince more people that “Yes we can” GET IT DONE….. If Barack picks Mark Warner, then this ticket feels great to me…. They certainly have similar visions, values and approaches. I’m happy Barack may have found someone deserving of running and working beside him as he brings real change to America….
(Nancy Pace blogs on breaking news at the intersection of politics, peace, war, culture, and spirituality at http://www.epharmony.com.)